Our informant Jones knows to attack the first Premier League game of 2023…
Tottenham v Aston Villa, New Year’s Day 2pm, Sky Sports Live – Play Super 6 to win £250,000!
Tottenham are always a failure, a full-blown crisis – and one could come here.
I’m a big believer in Antonio Conte’s approach, but his contract situation, amidst reports of ongoing negotiations, combined with the miserable intensity of his side’s early game, will bite them at some point.
The market is too much in favor of Tottenham when assessing the price of play here, and they are too thin at 8/13 at Sky Bet to beat improving Aston Villa.
Conte’s side have conceded the first goal in each of their last nine games in all competitions, trailing 2-0 in six of them. It’s a solid set of statistics that shows that Tottenham’s way of playing is deeply flawed.
Ultimately, a smart, shrewd, defensively capable team will cost Tottenham. Villa could be that team under Unai Emery and have shown very positive signs against Manchester United, Brighton and Liverpool. When assessing performance figures, Emery’s side deserved to win games against Manchester United and Brighton, and produced a healthy expected goal tally of 1.44, in a game where, from a game-like perspective, they lost first to Juventus. Jergen Klopp’s teams have never been ideal.
There are plenty of ways for Aston Villa to spend their money. Keep it simple and back them to avoid defeat at 5/4, Sky Bet stand out as main but Villa score first at 15/8, Villa win 4/1 at half time also worth considering .
Score Prediction: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Aston Villa win or draw (5/4 at Sky Bet – bet here!)
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea, New Year’s Day 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – Play SUPER 6 to win £250,000!
The match price looks right to me and Chelsea will likely get the job done in the final third, especially with Morgan Gibbs-White absent for the hosts, but Forest will dig deep and Creates problems for Londoners in every way.
Set pieces could be a fertile area for them.
I thought Chelsea looked shaky defending their box under pressure from corners and free-kicks against Bournemouth, the Cherries created a healthy 0.29 expected goals from set-pieces from Lloyd Kelly and Dominic Solanke The ball, and they both miss shots from close range. Chelsea’s overall defensive metrics from set pieces have dropped dramatically since Graham Potter took charge. They’ve taken 33 shots from that situation, reaching a 3.18 expected-goals background — only six teams with a worse output since Porter took over.
With that in mind, Forest’s centre-back threat is certainly worth a look.
Joe Worrall and Willie Boley have had eight shots between them since they were paired four games ago, and that doesn’t include Boley’s disallowed goal against Manchester United.
Worrall is 13/8 with Sky Bet, while Boly is 2/1 with players in the market for at least one shot on goal.Both prices look high – I’d back 4/5 offer as part of at least one chance against Chelsea Double on New Year’s Day on 3/1.